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Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets (Macro) 1. Geopolitics and the Crude Oil Market The Middle East situation (Israel, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz) remains the core macro variable. Crude oil prices have stabilized around $100 after significant volatility. The prevailing market expectation is that this round of conflict is expected to ease within 2-6 weeks, likely leading to a ceasefire agreement. As the VIX (fear index) retreats, market risk appetite is gradually recovering. 2. Economic Data and “Stagflation” Concerns US GDP growth for the last quarter slowed more than expected to 0.7%, primarily dragged down by weaker exports, real estate investment, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Combined with recent weak retail data, signals of cooling economic momentum are clear. Although rising oil prices and slowing growth have raised…# Analysis# bitcoin# crypto# ethereum# Market# TokenPre
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- TL，DR The overall macro environment in March was bearish: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and sent hawkish signals; persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and weakening employ...